Gabriel Narvaez (Meteo France) presented the CERISE project advances in the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX) workshop at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, USA. 25-27th March 2025.
Gabriel’s work in the CERISE project is on assessing the hydrological predictions of the new demonstrators developed within CERISE.
At the HEPEX workshop, Gabriel presented the main results from the recent publication (Narváez-Campo & Ardilouze, 2024, in review for the HESS journal) EGUsphere - Skilful Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Using a Fully Coupled Global Climate Model produced in the context of CERISE.
In this work, Gabriel et al demonstrated the advantages of enhanced soil water content in the land initial conditions of the forecast system and the benefits of the land-atmosphere coupling on the skill of the Météo France forecasting system.
The work also briefly discussed the results of the Land data assimilation system (LDAS-Monde) to improve the land initialization through Leaf-Area-Index global assimilation.
This new initialization method has been used in one of the Seasonal Forecast Demonstrators created in the CERISE project.
Overall, the 3 day workshop was well attended with experts in hydrological ensemble prediction.
Gabriel states “It was a great opportunity to present the CERISE results in such a dedicated forum and to gather useful feedback on our work in the CERISE project.”
About HEPEX:
For more than 20 years, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) has been a global community of researchers and practitioners in hydrological ensemble prediction. It brings together people who contribute and work on specific hydrological forecasting and hydrometeorological ensemble prediction topics. NOAA, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast and the European Commission Joint Research Centre co-chair HEPEX.
(Photos courtesy of G. Narvaez)
